A Study on the Spatial Spillover and Heterogeneous Effects of New Quality Productivity in Chinese Provinces on Carbon Emission Reduction

Shan Xinle^1,2, Yadmaa Zandan²

1.Hefei City University; 2.School of Economics and Business, Mongolian University of Life Sciences

Abstract：

Based on China’s "Dual Carbon" goals, this paper employs 2014–2023 panel data of 30 Chinese provinces. The results reveal fluctuating growth of provincial new-quality productivity alongside obvious east-central-west gaps and strong path dependence. While new-quality productivity significantly cuts local carbon emission intensity, administrative barriers and factor segmentation trigger negative spatial spillovers. Its mitigation effect stems from direct drivers, including technological innovation, factor allocation, and industrial restructuring, as well as indirect channels of energy-efficiency improvement and ecological carbon sequestration. The effect is strongest in eastern China and the secondary industry. Accordingly, suggestions cover boosting innovation, bridging regional divides, and constructing cross-regional collaborative emission-reduction mechanisms.

Key Words：

New Quality Productivity; carbon emission reduction; spatial spillover effects; heterogeneity analysis; provincial disparities